Feels more like May

Windsor – Quebec Corridor, ON / QC – It is feeling more like May in Ontario and Quebec! Warm southerly flow brought by the warm front, which arrived in the morning hours for much of Ontario, and the noon hours for Eastern Ontario and Quebec, had brought the temperature up to 20s and upper teens! Windsor, hit 21.4 C yesterday, while in the Markham Weather Centre (my personal weather station), we hit a 20.0 C at 15:57 EDT, making it the warmest day so far in the season.

This is all thanks to the warm front, which brought some heavy thundershowers this morning across Southern Ontario (and noon for Eastern Ontario and Quebec). Behind it, a warm gust of southernly air from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico settled in. In the very heart of this airmass (which is in Texas), the local temperature soared up to 40 C!

Well, good things won’t last long. A cold front have already swept through the Greater Toronto Area, as well as southwestern Ontario before we knew it. The front settled in these area during noon hours, when the area briefly clouded over, followed by the current sunshine. The winds shifted rapidly from southerly to westerly, and of course, with this, a stronger wind speed is recorded. Temperature will not rise any further for the rest of the daylight hours, and will drop to 3 C (for the GTA), as of tomorrow dawn hours.

After this warm shot of air, we have to deal with wintry conditions. It will be as if we have returned to early March in some cases on Friday. An incoming Colorado Low will stay south of us, but north enough to keep our precipitation as rain. Temperature will dip as low as 2 C (daytime high for Friday across the GTA), and a possible wet flurry or two during the overnight hours. We are expecting the low to linger across the weekend, dumping around 25 to 35 mm of rain throughout the weekend. A misery and cold weekend in store! More details will come later (I have a headache to deal with, and this wet snow business….)

As for the rain/snow line, the rough line will be drawn near the shores of Lake Huron, through Goderich, Wiarton, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Barrie, in through northern Peterborough County, eventually making its way to Renfrew County and Chelsea, Quebec. North of this line can experience primarily a snowfall event, accumulating as much as 10 to 15 cm in parts of northern Muskoka, and Parry Sound. Wow! So much for having temperature in the teens in the area today, then a wintry snow on Friday! Let’s face the truth, winter is back! (momentarily, not for long, and of course, more details to come)

P.S. Birthday special delayed… because of heavy schoolwork… I’ll find some time later…

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Is Spring Here?

For many Ontarians, this blog entry will be a piece of good news! It looks like as if spring has arrived across much Ontario. Well, at least, temporarily, and at least, for the next week or so.

Temperatures in the past few days have been well above the freezing mark. Yesterday’s daytime high temperature at my home weather station was way beyond the expected. It soared to a high of 13 C yesterday, with mainly sunny skies. Similar story goes on for today, the daytime temperature soared to 5 to 8 C across much of the Greater Toronto Area.

It was all thanks to the warm front, which brought us some snow on Thursday, accumulating less than 2 cm. That warm front kicked in southernly winds, as well as it brought some of the warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like the warm air will stick around for quite a bit, at least until next Wednesday or so.

Recent weather models suggest a return northerly flow for tomorrow (Sunday) as well as Monday. However, due to the strong sunshine, the temperature will not go down drastically, but rather, linger around the freezing mark. While the forecasts suggest around -3 to 0 C values, I have confidence that temperature in open areas (not near the lake, as the lake is still freezing cold, and can affect the local temperature) can reach as high as 3 C for Sunday/Monday.

Then, next comes will be the surge of warm air from an incoming low pressure system. I will have more coverage on this system later. It looks like, for now, that we will start this system as snow, then gradually switching over to wet snow, eventually giving way to showers. All these transition of precipitation will happen on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we will see scatter showers, as we enter into the warm sector of the low pressure system. Temperature will soar as high as 6 C for much of the Golden Horseshoe, with double digit highs possible in extreme southwestern Ontario. This day will be the peak of spring conditions. The freezing line will “move” as northerly as Moosonee, along the southerly shores of James Bay. Hence, we can see, this is a major shot of warm air.

Cold front will then sweep through much of Ontario on Thursday, and will give way to some snowfall on the Easter Weekend.

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Snowstorm’s over… how does a rainstorm sound?

Vancouver, BC – While the eastern Canadians are cleaning up their snow (see my picture taken in Markham, Ontario — about 20 to 40 cm had fallen in the locale), west coasters are dealing with a rainstorm!

A storm flowing from the Pacific Ocean is bound to hit southwestern shores of British Columbia, and British Columbians, get ready for a strong Pacific Storm. As of 7 AM PDT Monday, the system is now situated approximately 1000 km west of Victoria, BC. The storm will move quickly west-north-west ward, and it seems like everyone on the West Coast of Canada will see rain. In particular, the heaviest bands of showers will hit the most populous region of British Columbia. With the rain, we can see strong onshore winds, and that can create high tides, low-lying elevation floods, as well as mudslides towards the mountains. Widespread warnings and advisories are issued for British Columbia.

As of now, Vancouver is already seeing light rain showers due to the head bands of the system. Upwards to 30 to 50 mm of rain is possible for Victoria, Vancouver, and nearby areas.

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Heads up! Another Storm on the Way!

Winter Storm Watch had just been issued to much of Southern Ontario. Southern Ontario, Southern / Eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland will be a target for the upcoming winter storm to hit. According to the 18Z GFS, by the end of the next 72 hours period, on a 20:1 ratio, the snowfall amount is going to total up to 20 to 40 cm, depending where you are. With such a rough sketch of the system right now, it is impossible to determine the exact snowfall value.

Many forecasters are “betting their money” on this storm, as to this storm will dump over 30 to 60 cm of snow across Eastern Canada. However, as of 18Z GFS, I am not seeing anything remarkable and impressive, hence, my prediction will stay around 20 to 40 cm, and the outcome may even be slightly lower. I’ll revise my prediction if there’s any sudden changes to the models.

Currently, the system is now situated over Texas, and is dumping snow to cities like Dallas, and surrounding areas. The system is expected to “dip” south, dipping into the Gulf of Mexico, where it “sucks” up its moisture, then ride along the jet stream to meet the arctic air, and releases its moisture as snow for much of Canada. For all of Ontario, Quebec, and western parts of New Brunswick, this will be an all snow event. It is when we get to anything east of the New Brunswick, we will see a mess of mix precipitation and rain. The 0 C 850 mB line is projected, like the last storm we’ve seen a few days ago, and anything east of that line will see rain.

Right now, it looks like the most populous part of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island is in for a major freezing rain event. The freezing rain periods could prolong for up to 10 hours! (By the way, it is now just a rough sketch, more accurate forecasts come tomorrow). Looks like most of Nova Scotia, including the Cape Breton, and Newfoundland is in for rain. The Northwest corner of Newfoundland, parts of extreme Eastern Quebec, and parts of Labrador, will see this as all snow.

Currently, this is my proposed draft of snowfall amounts:

Southwestern Ontario (London, Windsor, Brantford) – 5 to 15 cm
Southcentral Ontario (Toronto, Niagara, Hamilton) – 15 to 25 cm
>>> NOTE: Some forecasters are suggesting 30-45 cm of snow for Southern Ontario.
Southeastern Ontario (Kingston, Ottawa, Cornwall) – 20 to 30 cm
Southwestern Quebec (Montreal, Sorel, Sherbourne) – 25 to 35 cm
Southcentral Quebec (Quebec, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan) – 25 to 40 cm
Gaspe Peninsula; Western New Brunswick (Bathurst, Gaspe, Rimouski) – 30 to 40 cm
Eastern New Brunswick (Moncton, Fredericton, St. John) – 10 to 15 cm PLUS 10 to 15 mm of rain
Nova Scotia (Halifax, Dartmouth, Yarmouth, Amherst) – Trace to 5 cm PLUS 25 to 35 mm of rain
Prince Edward Island ; Anticosti Island; Magdelene Islands – 15 to 25 cm PLUS 5 to 10 mm of rain
Eastern Newfoundland (St. John’s, Gander, Conception Bay South) – 2 to 8 cm PLUS 10 to 20 mm of rain
Western Newfoundland (Corner Brook, Stephenville, Port-aux-Basque) – 5 to 15 cm PLUS slight risk of rain
Northwestern Newfoundland; Labrador; Eastern Quebec (L’anse-aux-meadows; Sept-Iles) – 15 to 25 cm

A more detail analysis and forecast of the storm will be posted tomorrow. Right now, just be head’s up that a storm is coming to Eastern Canada.

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Recap of Yesterday’s Storm

So that wasn’t so bad, was it, GTAers? Less than expected amount of snow had fallen through last night, but yet, the morning commute was messy.

Much of Toronto started snowing last night at around 8:00 PM (hey, that matched my predictions). The snow quickly intensifies, and the bands of snow continued to invade north. Meanwhile, a large “red spot” on the RADAR maps develop just northwest of Brantford, and slowly, it moves it way into much of Dufferin County, Peel Region, and York Region. Moderate snow had fallen for around 6 hours, before the real “juice” of this storm kicks in. This red spot invaded much of the outskirt of Toronto, and heavy snow was falling. By the time 2am hits, much of the outskirts saw around 8 to 12 cm of snow, while Toronto itself saw around 5 to 8 cm.

At 4 am, here’s the snowfall report:
Toronto – 9 cm
Ottawa – 11 cm
Montreal – 6 cm
Windsor – 14 cm

The snow continued to move through much of the Greater Toronto Area, and to everyone’s relief, the snow calmed down at around 6 am. Light snow and flurries are flying across much of the GTA. However, this is not the end to the storm. Another band of moderate snow moves into the Hamilton-Wentworth Region first, then gradually making its way to Toronto at around 7:30 AM. The snow was falling at a rate of 1 cm/hour, weakening by 9 AM, then eventually ceased by 1 PM.

As for the storm’s total, Windsor saw 17 cm, Markham (at my home weather station) saw 12 to 15 cm, and no reports from the other cities.

Ottawa and Montreal’s snowfall stopped at around 3 pm.

This system is now making its way in through the Gaspe Peninsula, and through the Cote Nord Region of Quebec, and eventually into Labrador Sea. Anything east of the system will see primarily rain, while west of the system’s track will see primarily snow. In Fredericton, as of 5:00 PM, they are seeing a transition from snow to rain.

Just a quick footnote: All times are in EST.

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Yet another winter storm! This winter storm is scheduled to hit Southern Ontario, Southern/Central/Eastern Quebec, and the Maritime Provinces over the next 36 to 48 hours. This winter storm is not like any other “crabby storms” that we had in the past weeks, where we only seen 5 to 10 cm per system. This one is a monster system. Surging up and riding on the jet stream, it contained the ideal components for a snow storm (since we Canadians are on the northwest side of the storm, it will be mainly snow for us). These components includes the clash between the heat and the cold (from the Gulf and the Arctic respectively), as well as the sufficient moisture surging from the Gulf of Mexico.

From the 18Z GFS Model Data, it looks as if the rain/snow line could be drawn from Goderich, to Hamilton North, Mississauga, around the northern shores of Ontario, through Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Cornwall, and into Montreal , Longueil, Sherbourne, and briefly enter the US states of Vermont, New Hampshire, then angle north in Maine, through New Brunswick, and north it goes into Prince Edward Island (cutting at around Cornwall, Charlottetown, and Stratford). This rain/snow line is the approximate line where the 850 mB temperatures get above 0 C. If you live around this area, you will experience some extensive periods of freezing rain. This line will also depict the approximate track of the system. As of 6:30 PM EST, the storm system centre is around at Southern Indiana. In the next 36 to 48 hours, the system centre is going to move from Indiana and following the line, until it reaches the Labrador Sea by the end of the period.

According to the RADAR data collected at around 6:30 PM EST, the warm front of the system (otherwise known as the first bands of precipitation associating to this system) is at around Indianapolis, north-northeast through Cleveland, Syracruse, and through New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Due to the “hugeness” of this system, some of the precipitation from this front had already reached Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

From this RADAR, I predict that the snow will start falling in the Greater Toronto Area between the periods of 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM; and for the Ottawa-Gatineau area, the snow will start at one or two hours after Toronto had started its snowfall. As for Montreal Metropolitain, it looks like some initial band of the precipitation had found its way into the area 50 km south of Montreal. Therefore, I think Montreal will start their snowfall at approximately the same time as Toronto.

The worst of this storm will be at around southcentral Quebec. Places such as Sorel, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan will see the worst of this storm, as depicted from the GFS. From the GFS, I estimate that around 30 to 40 cm of snow can fall.

From the GFS, this is my prediction for each of the major metropolitan areas as to when the heaviest snow will hit:

Windsor – At around tonight 9 to 11 PM
London – At around tonight 10 PM to 2 AM
Hamilton – Tomorrow morning at around 3 AM to 6 AM
Niagara – Tomorrow morning at around 1 AM to 5 AM
Toronto – Tomorrow morning at around 4 AM to 8 AM (nasty commute)
Belleville – Tomorrow morning at around 6 AM to 9 AM
Kingston – Tomorrow morning at around 7 AM to 11 AM
Ottawa – Tomorrow morning at around 8 AM to noon
Montreal – Tomorrow around mid day

A general 15 to 25 cm of snow can be expected for most of the region; while some locale can see more than 30 cm.

A snowfall expectation chart and map to follow:

Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) – 12 to 18 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) – 12 to 18 cm
Middlesex County; London – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) – 8 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) – 2 to 8 cm (Mostly Freezing Rain)
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) – 13 to 22 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) – 20 to 30 cm (Very slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) – 15 to 30 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) – 12 to 25 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) – N/A
North Bay – 1 to 3 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) – 15 to 25 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) – 12 to 20 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) – 22 to 30 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton – 12 to 20 cm

Québec

Vaudreil – Dorion – 25 to 30 cm (Slight Chance of Freezing Rain)
Mont Tremblant – 25 to 35 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) – 20 to 30 cm
Montréal – 25 to 40 cm (Slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Terrebonne – 28 to 35 cm
Laval – 20 to 35 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) – 30 to 45 cm (Storm total could vary; depends the amount of freezing rain)
Shawanigan – 30 to 40 cm (Storm total could vary; depending the amount of freezing rain)
Sherbrooke; Drummondville – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) – 25 to 35 cm
Rimouski – 35 to 50 cm
Gaspé Penisula – 25 to 50 cm
Sept-Iles – 20 to 35 cm

New Brunswick

Bathurst; Campbellton – 10 to 18 cm
Fredericton – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Moncton; Dieppe; Riverview – 7 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
St. John – 3 to 8 cm (Mostly Rain / Freezing Rain)

Prince Edward Island

Charlottetown – 5 to 10 cm (Snow to Rain)
Summerside – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)
Souris – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)

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Flash Freeze Tonight

Markham, ON– Enjoyed the taste of spring today? Well, it’s not going to last long. Although Environment Canada had not issued any Flash Freeze Warnings yet to Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, according to the GFS models and my personal insights that this is entirely possible that we can have a flash freeze tonight.

All that snow that had melt and the rain that had fallen over the past 24 hours will become the major travelling hazard for tomorrow’s morning commute. It is estimated about 3 to 8 cm of snow had melted over the course of today, and around 1 to 3 mm of rain had fell across the Greater Toronto area today. That will create intensive puddles as well as some slippery sections of the road cover in water. Tonight, as the cold front sweeps through, we are looking at around an additional of 2 to 5 mm of rain. With this cold front, (as all cold fronts do), it brings in the cold arctic air (the same air mass that plunge Winnipeg’s daytime high to -10 C on March 1). This arctic air will come rapidly, along with some cold winds, creating wind chills down to -10 C. Temperature could fall from 6 C (expected dinner-time temperature) to -4 C in a matter of 3 hours. Freezing could occur rapidly. Additionally, recent weather models suggest some strong wrap-around snow, that could accumulate on the ice up to 5 cm, making the ice invisible, which allows the commute to get worse.

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Yet another March Storm

<strong>Markham, ON</strong> – February was a fierce month to many Torontonians. We haven’t had such fierce winter months in years. Of course, this led to many chaos to the unadapted the Torontonians. We’ve been increasingly adapted to the temperate winter.

This February was the snowiest month on record. Normally, we will receive around 22 cm of snow in February. However, we have made A RECORD! This record surpassed our old record of around 50 cm. Guess what? We’ve recorded 70 cm of snow in February alone! That was approximately all the snow we had seen last year!

We are currently aiming at breaking an all-time snowfall record set back from the 1938/1939 winter.

The first storm of March looks really fierce right now. A winter storm watch had been issued to Southern Ontario on Sunday afternoon. We are expecting a system from the Gulf of Mexico to “drag” the jet stream to way up north, creating a perfect path for the heat and moisture to build in. The warm front of this system is going to make its way into Southern Ontario tonight. With that, we can see some extensive freezing rain, as well as some ice accretion on roads. It will not be a very pleasant sight tomorrow’s morning commute, with all the slippery roads caused by the ice accretion. Approximately 2 mm of ice accretion is expected across the Greater Toronto Area. However, in the Niagara Peninsula, some snow could start off the precipitation, and that could also be slippery.

The warm air will surge in late morning tomorrow, giving a taste of our long-lost spring to the Torontonians. Temperatures are expected to soar up to 6 C across much of the suburbs of Toronto, while significantly higher (around 8 C) in Toronto and the Niagara Peninsula. Precipitation will also cease near mid-morning, giving way to some sunny breaks.

Tomorrow will be a perfect day for a walk in the park (if you get out at the right time, because if you get out late, the rain could return before you know it, details to follow), but beware of the melting water of the snow. It could cause some of the rivers to break its banks. Also, periods of freezing rain during the night does not help the problem either.

The cold front, according to the GFS, will sweep its way across Southern Ontario, during the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of heavy rain, perhaps thunder, will fall during the evening commute, and the commute will be a messy one. Temperatures will fall rapidly during the night, and we will experience the back side of the storm. We will see some of the wrap-around flurries, and some lake effects, and these conditions will linger until Wednesday, accumulating up to 5 cm.

Looks like spring is not quite there yet, but enjoy your taste of spring tomorrow!

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Torontonians! Relax… Just a snowfall record!

Markham, ON – UGH! English homework! Too much and occupies way too much of my time, gonna sneak in a 15 minute time slot to write this blog entry.

To date in Pearson International Airport, we’re reporting nearly 150 cm of snow. In my own backyard weather station (otherwise known as Markham Weather Centre), I have recorded over 140 cm of snow, but not quite yet 150 cm. However, we are VERY close to break the all-time snowfall record. Ever since the snowfall record started in the late 1800s, we’ve never seen this much snow except for the winter of 1938/1939. That winter, we saw about 200 cm of snow. This winter, we have the potential to break this record, especially with the newly released GFS suggesting more snow are on our way.

Due to the time constrain, I will quickly highlight all those potential snow we’re going to see. I apologize for my tardiness, but I have to do this in order to maintain my schoolwork quality.

Tomorrow to Wednesday — 10 to 15 cm
Friday to Saturday — 10 cm
March 3 to March 4 — 10 to 25 cm
March 8 to March 12 — (Unclear right now, but potentially 5 to 10 cm)

All of these “snow systems” or “winter storms”, if you like, totals the upcoming weeks snowfall to be at around 35 to 60 cm. If this is true, we can break the record easily. Remember, 150 + 60 = 210 cm.

Let’s make this record snowfall the best ever, by making use of all these snow for winter sports! WEE!

I apologize for my briefness in my blogs again, but schoolwork is piling up as we speak.

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Ice Storm ’08 – Could it be a reality?

Markham, ON – Recall Ice Storm ’98. A prolonged period of freezing rain has put down power lines and have done millions and millions of dollars of damage to Southern Ontario as well as Southern Quebec. What a nightmare! Could that happen again? Oh, yes it could. In fact, freezing rain makes the major weather story for much of Southern Ontario as well as Southwestern Quebec.

An incoming low from Texas is surging up warm air from the Gulf of Mexico is bringing a powerful warm front that will swipe across Southern Ontario. This warm front will surge up warm air, and rain will fall. Due to the surface temperature is so cold (think of all the snow cover), freezing rain will fall. In fact, when the first bands of precipitation (which will push into the Golden Horseshoe at around 9 am EST) will start off as freezing rain. The 850 mb temperature by then will be at around 2 C (which can sustain rain), but the surface temperature still remains at around -6 C, which creates a perfect environment for freezing rain to hatch.

The warm front will finally push out of Southern Ontario at around mid-afternoon, and the 850 mb temperature plus the warm southernly winds finally “convince” the surface temperature to go above 0 C. At this point, the precipitation will go over to moderate rain, falling up to 20 mm until it dissipates into drizzle by early overnight hours. Then the cold front comes into play into the Golden Horseshoe by Monday Afternoon. Initially, the precipitation will start as moderate rain, then slowly transfer over to moderate snow, accumulating to up to 5 cm.

At this point, it looks like the snow cover for much of Southern Ontario after the storm will be at around 10 to 15 cm.

Also, according to the 18 Z GFS, I will consider the rain/snow line to be drawn at about west to Tobermory and Manitoulin Island, through Wawa, and Sudbury, Nickel Centre, and through North Bay, and up north to Rouyn – Nwanda. Anything south of that will see primarily freezing rain (ice pellets) and rain. North of this line will see all snow.

A winter storm warning and a freezing rain warning are issued to all of Southern Ontario.

Ottawa, ON / Gatineau, QC – Ottawa and area (including Montreal and area) will see precipitation at around 6 hours later than the Golden Horseshoe. In Montreal, precipitation should start at around 1 PM. Majority of the precipitation will be mix precipitation, briefly switching over to rain, then back to snow. Snow accumulation will be at around 15 cm , accompanying with 5 mm of rain. Ottawa will see more of a freezing rain than a mix. Updates come tomorrow.

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