Lake Effect City-By-City Snowfall Forecast

Edmonton, Alberta – I’m sure all of you has heard that Edmonton has reached -46 C last weekend. At that moment, Edmonton was the coldest place on Earth, though this record was soon broken by a location in Siberia few hours later. -46 C was not the record coldest temperature, however. The coldest ever recorded was actually -48 C.

The wind chill in Edmonton last weekend reached down to -50 C. Such freezing cold temperature and wind chill values led to Environment Canada issuing a Wind Chill Warning to much of Alberta and the prairie provinces. The deep freeze is expected to continue until Thursday, when the next wave of low pressure arrives from British Columbia (the current system that dumped about 10 cm of snow in Vancouver, BC)
Southern Ontario – Anyways, back to the main topic of this post. The aforementioned cold air will descent into much of Ontario, following the system that is dumping misery rain in southern Ontario. Once the system pulls out, the Arctic air floodgates open, and with it, a strong (though not as strong as last week, at about 30 – 35 kph) north-northwest winds will accompany with it. The snowsquall activity should begin Tuesday evening, and continuing through Thursday morning. 
As a Great Laker, one should know that this brings on the snowsqualls. Since this time, the wind direction is angled at north-northwest, bands of snowsqualls may actually reach as far south as the Greater Toronto Area. The north-eastern portion and the north-western portion of the GTA is expected to have more accumulation than in the downtown core. 
With this snowsquall activity, the snowsquall amount will vary, as depicted in my following map. However, rule of thumb, areas in the south-eastern shores of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron may experience as much as 30 cm of snow, locally reaching 40 cm.
Anyhow, the following map (that I spent 2 hours making), summarizes all (of how I view this system):
The brown arrows indicate the general wind directions.
Sorry.. I forgot to make the legend, but here you go:
There are four shades of blue:
The lightest shade: 2 – 5 cm accumulated snow
The second lightest shade (sky blue colour): 5 – 10 cm
The third lightest (blue-purple): 10 – 20 cm
The darkest (Navy blue): 20 + cm 
Here’s my forecast. Since I’m running out of time, I’ll just forecast for the major cities below:
Sarnia – 5 – 8 cm
Chatham – Trace to 2 cm
London – 4 – 8 cm (My map and my forecast may be slightly underestimated)
St. Thomas – Trace to 4 cm (again, may be underestimated)
St. Mary’s – 2 – 4 cm
Stratford – Trace to 4 cm (may be underestimated on the map)
Goderich – 10 to 15 cm
Kincardine – 25 to 30 cm
Owen Sound – 15 to 20 cm
Tobermory – 10 to 18 cm
Meaford – 18 to 22 cm
Collingwood – 22 to 30 cm
Wasaga Beach – 25 to 30+ cm
Midland – 18 to 22 cm (may be slightly overestimated on the map)
Orillia – 8 to 15 cm
Gravenhurst; Bracebridge – Trace to 3 cm
Barrie – 15 to 20 cm
Keswick / Bradford / Georgina / Sutton – 8 to 15 cm
Northern York Region (Newmarket ; Aurora) – 5 to 10 cm
Markham / Pickering / Ajax / Whitby – 2 to 7 cm
Richmond Hill / Vaughan – Trace to 5 cm
Peel Region – None (Mississauga) to 5 cm (Caledon)
North Toronto (North of the 401) – Trace to 4 cm
South Toronto (Downtown) – None to 2 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener / Waterloo) – 3 to 5 cm (may be slightly underestimated on the map)
Cambridge – Trace to 4 cm
Kawartha Lakes / Beaverton – 4 to 8 cm
Grimsby / Lincoln / Welland – Trace to 4 cm
St. Catharines / Niagara Falls – 3 cm to 8 cm
Niagara – on – the – Lake – 6 cm to 12 cm
Fort Erie – Trace to 3 cm 
* Bolded cities indicate the cities that I think would be the hardest hit.
If you have any comments about this forecast, please post it. Thanks!

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A messy mix… Again..

Southern Ontario – After a messy winter storm on Wednesday (and messy days of snowsqualls in the snow belt areas, which I must say, was EXTREMELY impressive… Huntsville saw over 60 cm of snow within 24 hours… quite impressive, I must say again)..

Anyhow, there is currently a system tracking its way north. Currently, it is located in the Carolinas, carrying its moisture and of course, some heat from the Gulf of Mexico along with it. The system has brought heavy rain throughout the day for much of Florida and South Carolina. It will reach into Southern Ontario after midnight.

From the current standpoint, the system will start off as snow for much of southern Ontario (this includes anywhere east and south of Kingston), turning to a mixed precipitation (wet snow, iced pellets), and potentially some light drizzles after the warm front has passed through. Temperatures for the GTA, for now, would be around 2 – 3 C. The precipitation for the system should end by the end of the evening, when temperatures will hold at around the freezing mark for the rest of the night. The snow should accumulate to 3 – 5 cm, that’s my personal thought. Though many forecasters and some forecasting models are calling for an upwards to 10 cm.

Areas north and east of Kingston should expect the system to stay all snow. Upwards to 5 – 10 cm expected for the Montreal area.

On Monday, the cold front will swing through much of Southern Ontario. In front of the front would be some rain showers, slowly turning into mixed precip. and light flurries throughout Ontario by the time evening arrives in Southern Ontario. Behind the front would be frigid arctic air, the same air mass Ontarians have been experiencing for the last several days. Strong (though not quite as strong as the winds on Thursday) northwesterly winds would accompany with the front, and the days afterwards. This will translate to the lake effect machine turning on again. Since this time the winds are shifted to the northwest, the Haliburton areas, Huntsville, Parry Sound, and the western shores of Georgian Bay should not be impacted by this snowsquall activities. What we are concerned right now would be the western shores of Lake Huron, and the southern shores of Georgian Bay. Upwards to 10 cm may be expected for areas such as Collingwood, Owen Sound, Kincardine, etc. More updates on this snowsqualls activity later, after this system has passed through.

The snowsqualls could make its way into the GTA, with upwards to 3 cm. Again, more on this later. Frigid temperature is expected to arrive to the GTA after the storm. Temperature will plummet to a low of negative double digits as a night time low on Wednesday.

As for the current system that we’re concerned with, I have not yet to create a map on this system, but currently, I am expecting the first flakes to fall in Windsor (extreme SW Ontario) by around midnight, pushing its way into London by around 2 AM, into the Golden Horseshoe area by around 4 AM, and into eastern Ontario by sunrise.

For areas east and south of Kingston, a general guideline would be around 6 – 9 hours of light snow, followed by mixed precipitation and light rain later in the afternoon. The farther south you are, the less snow period you should expect and therefore more rain.

Hopefully you are satisfied with this long awaited update! I strongly encourage you to subscribe to the blog!

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Chilly Ontario – Snowfall Possible

Ontario – We’re already into 2 weeks of fall, and Northern Ontario is in risk of seeing SNOWFALL later tonight. A low pressure system moving towards Quebec as of September 30 is pulling cold air from the Arctic. This cool air is descending down into Northern Ontario (and into Southern Ontario as well), and much of Ontario can expect a strong northwesterly winds.

This cool air is affecting the daily temperature highs across Ontario in the next 5 days or so. While Windsor is expecting the coolest daily high on this Sunday at only 15 C, towns as north as Timmins are expecting single digits, and at temperature as low as 1 C.

Cooler air, and the “follow-up” precipitation of the low pressure system will both affect Northern Ontario, and this is the perfect combination. Tonight, while temperature in Timmins will drop to as low as -2 C, and the “follow-up precipitation” will fall as snow. We’re not expecting a major accumulation, but about 1 – 3 cm across much of Northeastern Ontario, while none to 1 cm in Northwestern Ontario.

This morning, according to RADAR maps, there were freezing rain falling along the northern shores of Lake Superior. Temperature this morning fell close to 0. The temperature (both daily highs and lows) will only continue to fall across Ontario, and will not be expected to rise until at least next Tuesday.

The cold air also affects Southern Ontario. Towns like Stratford can see temperatures around 0 C overnight during this weekend. Around the Golden Horseshoe, however, overnight low temperature will hover around 3 – 5 C for the most parts.

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Remnants of Fay

Southern Ontario – Almost September, and most students, like me, know what that means. Back to school time, and back to blogging time for me. I apologize for not “forewarning” my readers that I would be taking a break during the summer.

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a major concern to all North Americans, as usual, during the summer. We have already gone through seven storms. More recent ones including Tropical Storm Fay (at peak intensity), and the newly-formed Hurricane Gustav.

Tropical Storm Fay, in particular, remained stationery in Florida for several days, dumping several feet of rainfall to the locale. This storm has now moved inland, along the Appalachian, and will be reaching Southern Ontario tomorrow afternoon. Currently, showing in the Radar Maps, it’s centre is in the Carolinas, and steadily moving up north-east wards. Thicker clouds from Fay, and the trough have already moved into Southern Ontario, and moderate rainfall have already reach as north as Pelee Island, Ontario. To quite a contrast of the forecasting models, I think the Greater Toronto Area will see the first showers from the remnants of Fay early tomorrow morning, while in mid-afternoon for Eastern Ontario, and even later for the Ottawa-Gatineau Area. One point notable to mention, Fay had threatened parts of Southern US with Torando watches and Tornado warnings. However, I think that is unlikely to happen within the borders of Canada, as the system had weakened significantly as it progressed inlands. The winds have diminished, and the pressure has risen quite a bit.

The system will make its way inland towards parts of Quebec and the Maritimes.

I will be posting information about Hurricane Gustav (now a Tropical Storm, due to the mountains in Haiti), and about Invest 95L (which might become Tropical Storm Hanna tomorrow, as the system becomes more organized. The system only needs to gain 9 more mph of wind speed to qualify as a tropical storm). Stay tuned!

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Heat Wave is over, so are severe thunderstorm threats

Southern Ontario – First of all, I would like to apologize for not been promptly updating my blog and the GTA weather centre. Life has been very for me these days. I had exams, summatives, and a forecasting contest. So please forgive me for not updating my blog.

The thing with Tuen Ng festival that I mentioned on CWC (Canadian Weather Centre) really works. There is a Chinese proverb, “After the May Festival (Tuen Ng Festival is in May of the Chinese Calendar), you can safely store away your winter clothes”. This year’s Tuen Ng festival happened to be on June 9, 2008, and already the daily high of that day was into the low 30s, with humidex even higher.

Southern Ontarians have certainly enjoyed a 4 day long heat length. In those 4 days, average temperature of the city stayed around 25 C, with the coolest day being on Saturday. However, all 4 days had daily high temperature above 30 C, with humidex values of 40 C or higher. As a result, heat alert (and extreme heat alert for Monday), humidex advisory, and smog advisory had been issued for all 4 days. Record breaking temperatures are all across the province. London and Winsor respectively broke their temperature record, as a result of this warm surge of air from the Texas area. The low pressure originated from the Texas area brought the local, hot and unstable air mass with it, and invaded Southern Ontario. This air mass, as we currently speaks, is moving into Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada will experience temperature in the 20s (a slightly cooler value than what Ontario and Quebec experienced, because geographically, the provinces are more northerly, and the Atlantic Ocean also plays a major part in moderating the temperatures).

As a result of all of these heat, there were daytime (convection) thunderstorms. On Sunday and Monday, these thundershowers were a major issue in Southern Ontario. Consequently, severe thunderstorm watch/warning and tornado watch was issued in Southern Ontario throughout Sunday night and Monday night. Heavy downpours were reported, and rain was falling at a rate of 10 mm/hr at some locations across southern Ontario. Numerous funnel clouds were also reported. There was one in a dense residential area of Keele-Finch in Toronto. In some of the northern townships, suspected tornadoes ripped off roofs and torn down trees. Southern Ontario (excluding anywhere south of London) had not have a major tornado since the Tornado in Barrie in 1985. The same thing happened during the overnight hours of Monday / Tuesday. Trees cut off powers in some locations.

Thankfully, the wild, hot weather patterns are over. This morning in the early rush hours about (0700-0800 EDT), a cold front came through much of the Toronto area. The Toronto area did not see much severe weather because of lack of daytime heating when the front came through. All the residents saw were high winds and moderate rain. However, as the front makes its way into Eastern Ontario during the noon hours, the thunderstorms were supported by the daytime heating, and hence a severe thunderstorm watch was issued. No damage reported yet.

Behind the cold front, comes the cooler air from the prairies. The Prairies have been experiencing below normal temperatures. As this air comes into Ontario, the temperature will drastically drop back to seasonal. For the Toronto area, that would be around 23 C, with a nighttime low of 15 C. Finally, we can get some quality sleep without the heat!

Want more heat? Well, sorry to disappoint you, my readers. But the long-term forecast models are not looking good. It seems like we are in for some “Prairie Weather” for next week, with wet weather and temperature in the mid teens. However, that is still far way off, and I will keep you posted on that.

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Risk of Frost… End of May?

Southcentral Ontario – I haven’t been posting a weather blog post for a long time. This is a much anticipated blog entry for my readers, and thank you for checking daily on my blog. I hereby apologize that I had not been updating my blog. This is because I am busy with the Wundercast contest on Wunderground. It is a forecasting contest available Wunderground members. So, here comes my blog entry! Well, it seems like winter is not losing its grip just quite yet. We are almost into June and there is still a risk of frost in Southcentral Ontario. The main area of concern is Muskoka, Parry Sound, Grey County, and areas in higher grounds, such as Haliburton Highlands. These areas are at high risk of seeing frost developing tonight. Yesterday, temperature soared up to the mid 20s across Ontario as a result of a push of warm air from the Great Plains of US. Today, however, a return of the arctic air cools everything down. Yesterday night, a cold front sweeps through much of Southwestern Ontario, triggering an issue with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch last night. Much of Southcentral Ontario saw rainfall amounts up to 5 mm. Behind this cold front, is arctic air from Hudson Bay. For everyone’s information, the Hudson Bay is beginning to thaw right now, as the locale is beginning to see above 0 temperatures. In fact, nowadays for daytime high temperatures, it is extremely rare to see daytime highs of negative digits unless you are north of 75 degrees N. However, this airmass from the Hudson Bay area is cool enough to cool down an area that had previously witnessed mid 20 temperatures, and thus throughout today, we were seeing departing clouds, and high winds. These will be a major factor for tonight’s frost. Most of Central Ontario only hit a high of around low teens for today, and with the overnight hours, temperatures may dip as low as 0 in some locale. The clear skies and dying winds will support the formation of frost, as dew freezes into its solid form. The clear skies allow heat to be lose faster than ever. The GTA can expect temperature at around 2 to 4 C for tonight, and as we speak right now, Markham, ON is already down to 5 C. To the north, where the temperature is cooler and has an higher elevation, frost might be even more significant. However, for areas closer to the Great Lakes, for example, the town of Penetanguishene, which is at the shore of Georgian Bay, the risk of frost is lower because the lake is able to “modify” the local temperature. The lakes are warmer than the nighttime lows for tonight. Inland areas would not be as lucky, and get ready to shelter your plants (ummm… it’s kind of late now, but worth a try), as frost kicks in tonight. MY WEATHER WEBSITE: (Still under construction, any feedbacks?) Bookmark my site at Visitor Map

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Longer Daylight Hours ; Warmer Temperatures

Yukon ; Northwest Territories ; Nunavut – First of all, I apologize for not been writing my weather blog since April 23. I had been spending this time in trying to edit my website. Those of you who are interested, can click on the “Canadian Weather Centre – Blog Outreach” link above.

During this time I had been away from editing my blog, a major weather pattern change happened in the North. Noticeably, the North had significantly warmed up as we enter May, and some parts of the Arctic begins to receive almost 24-hour sunlight.

For areas south of the Arctic Circle, daily temperature highs have been reaching to the positive single digits. For traditionally colder areas (because of the colder Labrador Current flowing past), such as Baffin Island, the local temperature have been reaching as high as 5 C. Wet snow had been falling in the area, and it is forecasted that the local temperature may even reach as high as 11 C by the end of this week.

Towards the west shore of Hudson Bay, cold arctic air had been persistent in the area, and hence the coldest spot of the nation had been in these areas for the past 2 weeks. The locale also reached 0 C in some cases (i.e. Arviat, NU). Note that places such as Boothia Peninsula, Bathurst Inlet, are still way below the freezing mark with temperature around the negative double digits.

As we progress west to Yellowknife and Hay River area, the temperature had been holding steady at around 5 C for the past 2 weeks, when the warm air from Arizona and Texas attacked Alberta and Saskatchewan. The warm air was, at one point, so strong that it pushes the jet stream as north as Yellowknife. However, currently, the jet stream is nowhere near the 60th Parallel. The north has warm temperature solely because of the longer daylight hours.

The Yukon – Alaska Border, the westernmost frontier of Canada, is even warmer. Whitehorse had been reporting temperature in the positive double digits. And like Yellowknife, the reason for this warm up was that the longer daylight hours, invasion of warm air, etc.

Looks like the North is set for summer, but Southern Canada, hmm, not really. Southern Canada’s temperature had been lingering in the double digits. Unlike April, Southern Canada’s temperature had been holding steady around 13 to 19 C. Whereas in April, Southern Canada’s temperature had soared as high as 30 C. One notable example would be Val Marie, Saskatchewan, which hit 29 C. This temperature still remains as the warmest value in Canada for 2008.

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