Archive for Winter

Heads up! Another Storm on the Way!

March 6, 2008 at 11:10 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Winter Storm Watch had just been issued to much of Southern Ontario. Southern Ontario, Southern / Eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland will be a target for the upcoming winter storm to hit. According to the 18Z GFS, by the end of the next 72 hours period, on a 20:1 ratio, the snowfall amount is going to total up to 20 to 40 cm, depending where you are. With such a rough sketch of the system right now, it is impossible to determine the exact snowfall value.

Many forecasters are “betting their money” on this storm, as to this storm will dump over 30 to 60 cm of snow across Eastern Canada. However, as of 18Z GFS, I am not seeing anything remarkable and impressive, hence, my prediction will stay around 20 to 40 cm, and the outcome may even be slightly lower. I’ll revise my prediction if there’s any sudden changes to the models.

Currently, the system is now situated over Texas, and is dumping snow to cities like Dallas, and surrounding areas. The system is expected to “dip” south, dipping into the Gulf of Mexico, where it “sucks” up its moisture, then ride along the jet stream to meet the arctic air, and releases its moisture as snow for much of Canada. For all of Ontario, Quebec, and western parts of New Brunswick, this will be an all snow event. It is when we get to anything east of the New Brunswick, we will see a mess of mix precipitation and rain. The 0 C 850 mB line is projected, like the last storm we’ve seen a few days ago, and anything east of that line will see rain.

Right now, it looks like the most populous part of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island is in for a major freezing rain event. The freezing rain periods could prolong for up to 10 hours! (By the way, it is now just a rough sketch, more accurate forecasts come tomorrow). Looks like most of Nova Scotia, including the Cape Breton, and Newfoundland is in for rain. The Northwest corner of Newfoundland, parts of extreme Eastern Quebec, and parts of Labrador, will see this as all snow.

Currently, this is my proposed draft of snowfall amounts:

Southwestern Ontario (London, Windsor, Brantford) – 5 to 15 cm
Southcentral Ontario (Toronto, Niagara, Hamilton) – 15 to 25 cm
>>> NOTE: Some forecasters are suggesting 30-45 cm of snow for Southern Ontario.
Southeastern Ontario (Kingston, Ottawa, Cornwall) – 20 to 30 cm
Southwestern Quebec (Montreal, Sorel, Sherbourne) – 25 to 35 cm
Southcentral Quebec (Quebec, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan) – 25 to 40 cm
Gaspe Peninsula; Western New Brunswick (Bathurst, Gaspe, Rimouski) – 30 to 40 cm
Eastern New Brunswick (Moncton, Fredericton, St. John) – 10 to 15 cm PLUS 10 to 15 mm of rain
Nova Scotia (Halifax, Dartmouth, Yarmouth, Amherst) – Trace to 5 cm PLUS 25 to 35 mm of rain
Prince Edward Island ; Anticosti Island; Magdelene Islands – 15 to 25 cm PLUS 5 to 10 mm of rain
Eastern Newfoundland (St. John’s, Gander, Conception Bay South) – 2 to 8 cm PLUS 10 to 20 mm of rain
Western Newfoundland (Corner Brook, Stephenville, Port-aux-Basque) – 5 to 15 cm PLUS slight risk of rain
Northwestern Newfoundland; Labrador; Eastern Quebec (L’anse-aux-meadows; Sept-Iles) – 15 to 25 cm

A more detail analysis and forecast of the storm will be posted tomorrow. Right now, just be head’s up that a storm is coming to Eastern Canada.

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Recap of Yesterday’s Storm

March 5, 2008 at 10:57 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So that wasn’t so bad, was it, GTAers? Less than expected amount of snow had fallen through last night, but yet, the morning commute was messy.

Much of Toronto started snowing last night at around 8:00 PM (hey, that matched my predictions). The snow quickly intensifies, and the bands of snow continued to invade north. Meanwhile, a large “red spot” on the RADAR maps develop just northwest of Brantford, and slowly, it moves it way into much of Dufferin County, Peel Region, and York Region. Moderate snow had fallen for around 6 hours, before the real “juice” of this storm kicks in. This red spot invaded much of the outskirt of Toronto, and heavy snow was falling. By the time 2am hits, much of the outskirts saw around 8 to 12 cm of snow, while Toronto itself saw around 5 to 8 cm.

At 4 am, here’s the snowfall report:
Toronto – 9 cm
Ottawa – 11 cm
Montreal – 6 cm
Windsor – 14 cm

The snow continued to move through much of the Greater Toronto Area, and to everyone’s relief, the snow calmed down at around 6 am. Light snow and flurries are flying across much of the GTA. However, this is not the end to the storm. Another band of moderate snow moves into the Hamilton-Wentworth Region first, then gradually making its way to Toronto at around 7:30 AM. The snow was falling at a rate of 1 cm/hour, weakening by 9 AM, then eventually ceased by 1 PM.

As for the storm’s total, Windsor saw 17 cm, Markham (at my home weather station) saw 12 to 15 cm, and no reports from the other cities.

Ottawa and Montreal’s snowfall stopped at around 3 pm.

This system is now making its way in through the Gaspe Peninsula, and through the Cote Nord Region of Quebec, and eventually into Labrador Sea. Anything east of the system will see primarily rain, while west of the system’s track will see primarily snow. In Fredericton, as of 5:00 PM, they are seeing a transition from snow to rain.

Just a quick footnote: All times are in EST.

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Flash Freeze Tonight

March 3, 2008 at 10:17 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Markham, ON- Enjoyed the taste of spring today? Well, it’s not going to last long. Although Environment Canada had not issued any Flash Freeze Warnings yet to Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, according to the GFS models and my personal insights that this is entirely possible that we can have a flash freeze tonight.

All that snow that had melt and the rain that had fallen over the past 24 hours will become the major travelling hazard for tomorrow’s morning commute. It is estimated about 3 to 8 cm of snow had melted over the course of today, and around 1 to 3 mm of rain had fell across the Greater Toronto area today. That will create intensive puddles as well as some slippery sections of the road cover in water. Tonight, as the cold front sweeps through, we are looking at around an additional of 2 to 5 mm of rain. With this cold front, (as all cold fronts do), it brings in the cold arctic air (the same air mass that plunge Winnipeg’s daytime high to -10 C on March 1). This arctic air will come rapidly, along with some cold winds, creating wind chills down to -10 C. Temperature could fall from 6 C (expected dinner-time temperature) to -4 C in a matter of 3 hours. Freezing could occur rapidly. Additionally, recent weather models suggest some strong wrap-around snow, that could accumulate on the ice up to 5 cm, making the ice invisible, which allows the commute to get worse.

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Yet another March Storm

March 2, 2008 at 11:56 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

<strong>Markham, ON</strong> – February was a fierce month to many Torontonians. We haven’t had such fierce winter months in years. Of course, this led to many chaos to the unadapted the Torontonians. We’ve been increasingly adapted to the temperate winter.

This February was the snowiest month on record. Normally, we will receive around 22 cm of snow in February. However, we have made A RECORD! This record surpassed our old record of around 50 cm. Guess what? We’ve recorded 70 cm of snow in February alone! That was approximately all the snow we had seen last year!

We are currently aiming at breaking an all-time snowfall record set back from the 1938/1939 winter.

The first storm of March looks really fierce right now. A winter storm watch had been issued to Southern Ontario on Sunday afternoon. We are expecting a system from the Gulf of Mexico to “drag” the jet stream to way up north, creating a perfect path for the heat and moisture to build in. The warm front of this system is going to make its way into Southern Ontario tonight. With that, we can see some extensive freezing rain, as well as some ice accretion on roads. It will not be a very pleasant sight tomorrow’s morning commute, with all the slippery roads caused by the ice accretion. Approximately 2 mm of ice accretion is expected across the Greater Toronto Area. However, in the Niagara Peninsula, some snow could start off the precipitation, and that could also be slippery.

The warm air will surge in late morning tomorrow, giving a taste of our long-lost spring to the Torontonians. Temperatures are expected to soar up to 6 C across much of the suburbs of Toronto, while significantly higher (around 8 C) in Toronto and the Niagara Peninsula. Precipitation will also cease near mid-morning, giving way to some sunny breaks.

Tomorrow will be a perfect day for a walk in the park (if you get out at the right time, because if you get out late, the rain could return before you know it, details to follow), but beware of the melting water of the snow. It could cause some of the rivers to break its banks. Also, periods of freezing rain during the night does not help the problem either.

The cold front, according to the GFS, will sweep its way across Southern Ontario, during the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of heavy rain, perhaps thunder, will fall during the evening commute, and the commute will be a messy one. Temperatures will fall rapidly during the night, and we will experience the back side of the storm. We will see some of the wrap-around flurries, and some lake effects, and these conditions will linger until Wednesday, accumulating up to 5 cm.

Looks like spring is not quite there yet, but enjoy your taste of spring tomorrow!

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Ice Storm ‘08 – Could it be a reality?

February 17, 2008 at 4:14 am · Filed under Winter ·Tagged

Markham, ON – Recall Ice Storm ‘98. A prolonged period of freezing rain has put down power lines and have done millions and millions of dollars of damage to Southern Ontario as well as Southern Quebec. What a nightmare! Could that happen again? Oh, yes it could. In fact, freezing rain makes the major weather story for much of Southern Ontario as well as Southwestern Quebec.

An incoming low from Texas is surging up warm air from the Gulf of Mexico is bringing a powerful warm front that will swipe across Southern Ontario. This warm front will surge up warm air, and rain will fall. Due to the surface temperature is so cold (think of all the snow cover), freezing rain will fall. In fact, when the first bands of precipitation (which will push into the Golden Horseshoe at around 9 am EST) will start off as freezing rain. The 850 mb temperature by then will be at around 2 C (which can sustain rain), but the surface temperature still remains at around -6 C, which creates a perfect environment for freezing rain to hatch.

The warm front will finally push out of Southern Ontario at around mid-afternoon, and the 850 mb temperature plus the warm southernly winds finally “convince” the surface temperature to go above 0 C. At this point, the precipitation will go over to moderate rain, falling up to 20 mm until it dissipates into drizzle by early overnight hours. Then the cold front comes into play into the Golden Horseshoe by Monday Afternoon. Initially, the precipitation will start as moderate rain, then slowly transfer over to moderate snow, accumulating to up to 5 cm.

At this point, it looks like the snow cover for much of Southern Ontario after the storm will be at around 10 to 15 cm.

Also, according to the 18 Z GFS, I will consider the rain/snow line to be drawn at about west to Tobermory and Manitoulin Island, through Wawa, and Sudbury, Nickel Centre, and through North Bay, and up north to Rouyn – Nwanda. Anything south of that will see primarily freezing rain (ice pellets) and rain. North of this line will see all snow.

A winter storm warning and a freezing rain warning are issued to all of Southern Ontario.

Ottawa, ON / Gatineau, QC – Ottawa and area (including Montreal and area) will see precipitation at around 6 hours later than the Golden Horseshoe. In Montreal, precipitation should start at around 1 PM. Majority of the precipitation will be mix precipitation, briefly switching over to rain, then back to snow. Snow accumulation will be at around 15 cm , accompanying with 5 mm of rain. Ottawa will see more of a freezing rain than a mix. Updates come tomorrow.

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