Yet another winter storm! This winter storm is scheduled to hit Southern Ontario, Southern/Central/Eastern Quebec, and the Maritime Provinces over the next 36 to 48 hours. This winter storm is not like any other “crabby storms” that we had in the past weeks, where we only seen 5 to 10 cm per system. This one is a monster system. Surging up and riding on the jet stream, it contained the ideal components for a snow storm (since we Canadians are on the northwest side of the storm, it will be mainly snow for us). These components includes the clash between the heat and the cold (from the Gulf and the Arctic respectively), as well as the sufficient moisture surging from the Gulf of Mexico.
From the 18Z GFS Model Data, it looks as if the rain/snow line could be drawn from Goderich, to Hamilton North, Mississauga, around the northern shores of Ontario, through Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Cornwall, and into Montreal , Longueil, Sherbourne, and briefly enter the US states of Vermont, New Hampshire, then angle north in Maine, through New Brunswick, and north it goes into Prince Edward Island (cutting at around Cornwall, Charlottetown, and Stratford). This rain/snow line is the approximate line where the 850 mB temperatures get above 0 C. If you live around this area, you will experience some extensive periods of freezing rain. This line will also depict the approximate track of the system. As of 6:30 PM EST, the storm system centre is around at Southern Indiana. In the next 36 to 48 hours, the system centre is going to move from Indiana and following the line, until it reaches the Labrador Sea by the end of the period.
According to the RADAR data collected at around 6:30 PM EST, the warm front of the system (otherwise known as the first bands of precipitation associating to this system) is at around Indianapolis, north-northeast through Cleveland, Syracruse, and through New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Due to the “hugeness” of this system, some of the precipitation from this front had already reached Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.
From this RADAR, I predict that the snow will start falling in the Greater Toronto Area between the periods of 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM; and for the Ottawa-Gatineau area, the snow will start at one or two hours after Toronto had started its snowfall. As for Montreal Metropolitain, it looks like some initial band of the precipitation had found its way into the area 50 km south of Montreal. Therefore, I think Montreal will start their snowfall at approximately the same time as Toronto.
The worst of this storm will be at around southcentral Quebec. Places such as Sorel, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan will see the worst of this storm, as depicted from the GFS. From the GFS, I estimate that around 30 to 40 cm of snow can fall.
From the GFS, this is my prediction for each of the major metropolitan areas as to when the heaviest snow will hit:
Windsor – At around tonight 9 to 11 PM
London – At around tonight 10 PM to 2 AM
Hamilton – Tomorrow morning at around 3 AM to 6 AM
Niagara – Tomorrow morning at around 1 AM to 5 AM
Toronto – Tomorrow morning at around 4 AM to 8 AM (nasty commute)
Belleville – Tomorrow morning at around 6 AM to 9 AM
Kingston – Tomorrow morning at around 7 AM to 11 AM
Ottawa – Tomorrow morning at around 8 AM to noon
Montreal – Tomorrow around mid day
A general 15 to 25 cm of snow can be expected for most of the region; while some locale can see more than 30 cm.
A snowfall expectation chart and map to follow:
Ontario
Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) – 12 to 18 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) – 12 to 18 cm
Middlesex County; London – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) – 8 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) – 2 to 8 cm (Mostly Freezing Rain)
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) – 13 to 22 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) – 20 to 30 cm (Very slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) – 15 to 30 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) – 12 to 25 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) – N/A
North Bay – 1 to 3 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) – 15 to 25 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) – 12 to 20 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) – 22 to 30 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton – 12 to 20 cm
Québec
Vaudreil – Dorion – 25 to 30 cm (Slight Chance of Freezing Rain)
Mont Tremblant – 25 to 35 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) – 20 to 30 cm
Montréal – 25 to 40 cm (Slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Terrebonne – 28 to 35 cm
Laval – 20 to 35 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) – 30 to 45 cm (Storm total could vary; depends the amount of freezing rain)
Shawanigan – 30 to 40 cm (Storm total could vary; depending the amount of freezing rain)
Sherbrooke; Drummondville – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) – 25 to 35 cm
Rimouski – 35 to 50 cm
Gaspé Penisula – 25 to 50 cm
Sept-Iles – 20 to 35 cm
New Brunswick
Bathurst; Campbellton – 10 to 18 cm
Fredericton – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Moncton; Dieppe; Riverview – 7 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
St. John – 3 to 8 cm (Mostly Rain / Freezing Rain)
Prince Edward Island
Charlottetown – 5 to 10 cm (Snow to Rain)
Summerside – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)
Souris – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)
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