Archive for March, 2008

Is Spring Here?

March 15, 2008 at 8:29 pm · Filed under Spring 2008 ·Tagged , , , , , , , ,

For many Ontarians, this blog entry will be a piece of good news! It looks like as if spring has arrived across much Ontario. Well, at least, temporarily, and at least, for the next week or so.

Temperatures in the past few days have been well above the freezing mark. Yesterday’s daytime high temperature at my home weather station was way beyond the expected. It soared to a high of 13 C yesterday, with mainly sunny skies. Similar story goes on for today, the daytime temperature soared to 5 to 8 C across much of the Greater Toronto Area.

It was all thanks to the warm front, which brought us some snow on Thursday, accumulating less than 2 cm. That warm front kicked in southernly winds, as well as it brought some of the warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like the warm air will stick around for quite a bit, at least until next Wednesday or so.

Recent weather models suggest a return northerly flow for tomorrow (Sunday) as well as Monday. However, due to the strong sunshine, the temperature will not go down drastically, but rather, linger around the freezing mark. While the forecasts suggest around -3 to 0 C values, I have confidence that temperature in open areas (not near the lake, as the lake is still freezing cold, and can affect the local temperature) can reach as high as 3 C for Sunday/Monday.

Then, next comes will be the surge of warm air from an incoming low pressure system. I will have more coverage on this system later. It looks like, for now, that we will start this system as snow, then gradually switching over to wet snow, eventually giving way to showers. All these transition of precipitation will happen on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we will see scatter showers, as we enter into the warm sector of the low pressure system. Temperature will soar as high as 6 C for much of the Golden Horseshoe, with double digit highs possible in extreme southwestern Ontario. This day will be the peak of spring conditions. The freezing line will “move” as northerly as Moosonee, along the southerly shores of James Bay. Hence, we can see, this is a major shot of warm air.

Cold front will then sweep through much of Ontario on Thursday, and will give way to some snowfall on the Easter Weekend.

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Snowstorm’s over… how does a rainstorm sound?

March 10, 2008 at 3:31 pm · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Vancouver, BC – While the eastern Canadians are cleaning up their snow (see my picture taken in Markham, Ontario — about 20 to 40 cm had fallen in the locale), west coasters are dealing with a rainstorm!

A storm flowing from the Pacific Ocean is bound to hit southwestern shores of British Columbia, and British Columbians, get ready for a strong Pacific Storm. As of 7 AM PDT Monday, the system is now situated approximately 1000 km west of Victoria, BC. The storm will move quickly west-north-west ward, and it seems like everyone on the West Coast of Canada will see rain. In particular, the heaviest bands of showers will hit the most populous region of British Columbia. With the rain, we can see strong onshore winds, and that can create high tides, low-lying elevation floods, as well as mudslides towards the mountains. Widespread warnings and advisories are issued for British Columbia.

As of now, Vancouver is already seeing light rain showers due to the head bands of the system. Upwards to 30 to 50 mm of rain is possible for Victoria, Vancouver, and nearby areas.

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Heads up! Another Storm on the Way!

March 6, 2008 at 11:10 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Winter Storm Watch had just been issued to much of Southern Ontario. Southern Ontario, Southern / Eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland will be a target for the upcoming winter storm to hit. According to the 18Z GFS, by the end of the next 72 hours period, on a 20:1 ratio, the snowfall amount is going to total up to 20 to 40 cm, depending where you are. With such a rough sketch of the system right now, it is impossible to determine the exact snowfall value.

Many forecasters are “betting their money” on this storm, as to this storm will dump over 30 to 60 cm of snow across Eastern Canada. However, as of 18Z GFS, I am not seeing anything remarkable and impressive, hence, my prediction will stay around 20 to 40 cm, and the outcome may even be slightly lower. I’ll revise my prediction if there’s any sudden changes to the models.

Currently, the system is now situated over Texas, and is dumping snow to cities like Dallas, and surrounding areas. The system is expected to “dip” south, dipping into the Gulf of Mexico, where it “sucks” up its moisture, then ride along the jet stream to meet the arctic air, and releases its moisture as snow for much of Canada. For all of Ontario, Quebec, and western parts of New Brunswick, this will be an all snow event. It is when we get to anything east of the New Brunswick, we will see a mess of mix precipitation and rain. The 0 C 850 mB line is projected, like the last storm we’ve seen a few days ago, and anything east of that line will see rain.

Right now, it looks like the most populous part of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island is in for a major freezing rain event. The freezing rain periods could prolong for up to 10 hours! (By the way, it is now just a rough sketch, more accurate forecasts come tomorrow). Looks like most of Nova Scotia, including the Cape Breton, and Newfoundland is in for rain. The Northwest corner of Newfoundland, parts of extreme Eastern Quebec, and parts of Labrador, will see this as all snow.

Currently, this is my proposed draft of snowfall amounts:

Southwestern Ontario (London, Windsor, Brantford) – 5 to 15 cm
Southcentral Ontario (Toronto, Niagara, Hamilton) – 15 to 25 cm
>>> NOTE: Some forecasters are suggesting 30-45 cm of snow for Southern Ontario.
Southeastern Ontario (Kingston, Ottawa, Cornwall) – 20 to 30 cm
Southwestern Quebec (Montreal, Sorel, Sherbourne) – 25 to 35 cm
Southcentral Quebec (Quebec, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan) – 25 to 40 cm
Gaspe Peninsula; Western New Brunswick (Bathurst, Gaspe, Rimouski) – 30 to 40 cm
Eastern New Brunswick (Moncton, Fredericton, St. John) – 10 to 15 cm PLUS 10 to 15 mm of rain
Nova Scotia (Halifax, Dartmouth, Yarmouth, Amherst) – Trace to 5 cm PLUS 25 to 35 mm of rain
Prince Edward Island ; Anticosti Island; Magdelene Islands – 15 to 25 cm PLUS 5 to 10 mm of rain
Eastern Newfoundland (St. John’s, Gander, Conception Bay South) – 2 to 8 cm PLUS 10 to 20 mm of rain
Western Newfoundland (Corner Brook, Stephenville, Port-aux-Basque) – 5 to 15 cm PLUS slight risk of rain
Northwestern Newfoundland; Labrador; Eastern Quebec (L’anse-aux-meadows; Sept-Iles) – 15 to 25 cm

A more detail analysis and forecast of the storm will be posted tomorrow. Right now, just be head’s up that a storm is coming to Eastern Canada.

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Recap of Yesterday’s Storm

March 5, 2008 at 10:57 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So that wasn’t so bad, was it, GTAers? Less than expected amount of snow had fallen through last night, but yet, the morning commute was messy.

Much of Toronto started snowing last night at around 8:00 PM (hey, that matched my predictions). The snow quickly intensifies, and the bands of snow continued to invade north. Meanwhile, a large “red spot” on the RADAR maps develop just northwest of Brantford, and slowly, it moves it way into much of Dufferin County, Peel Region, and York Region. Moderate snow had fallen for around 6 hours, before the real “juice” of this storm kicks in. This red spot invaded much of the outskirt of Toronto, and heavy snow was falling. By the time 2am hits, much of the outskirts saw around 8 to 12 cm of snow, while Toronto itself saw around 5 to 8 cm.

At 4 am, here’s the snowfall report:
Toronto – 9 cm
Ottawa – 11 cm
Montreal – 6 cm
Windsor – 14 cm

The snow continued to move through much of the Greater Toronto Area, and to everyone’s relief, the snow calmed down at around 6 am. Light snow and flurries are flying across much of the GTA. However, this is not the end to the storm. Another band of moderate snow moves into the Hamilton-Wentworth Region first, then gradually making its way to Toronto at around 7:30 AM. The snow was falling at a rate of 1 cm/hour, weakening by 9 AM, then eventually ceased by 1 PM.

As for the storm’s total, Windsor saw 17 cm, Markham (at my home weather station) saw 12 to 15 cm, and no reports from the other cities.

Ottawa and Montreal’s snowfall stopped at around 3 pm.

This system is now making its way in through the Gaspe Peninsula, and through the Cote Nord Region of Quebec, and eventually into Labrador Sea. Anything east of the system will see primarily rain, while west of the system’s track will see primarily snow. In Fredericton, as of 5:00 PM, they are seeing a transition from snow to rain.

Just a quick footnote: All times are in EST.

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March 5, 2008 at 1:10 am · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Yet another winter storm! This winter storm is scheduled to hit Southern Ontario, Southern/Central/Eastern Quebec, and the Maritime Provinces over the next 36 to 48 hours. This winter storm is not like any other “crabby storms” that we had in the past weeks, where we only seen 5 to 10 cm per system. This one is a monster system. Surging up and riding on the jet stream, it contained the ideal components for a snow storm (since we Canadians are on the northwest side of the storm, it will be mainly snow for us). These components includes the clash between the heat and the cold (from the Gulf and the Arctic respectively), as well as the sufficient moisture surging from the Gulf of Mexico.

From the 18Z GFS Model Data, it looks as if the rain/snow line could be drawn from Goderich, to Hamilton North, Mississauga, around the northern shores of Ontario, through Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Cornwall, and into Montreal , Longueil, Sherbourne, and briefly enter the US states of Vermont, New Hampshire, then angle north in Maine, through New Brunswick, and north it goes into Prince Edward Island (cutting at around Cornwall, Charlottetown, and Stratford). This rain/snow line is the approximate line where the 850 mB temperatures get above 0 C. If you live around this area, you will experience some extensive periods of freezing rain. This line will also depict the approximate track of the system. As of 6:30 PM EST, the storm system centre is around at Southern Indiana. In the next 36 to 48 hours, the system centre is going to move from Indiana and following the line, until it reaches the Labrador Sea by the end of the period.

According to the RADAR data collected at around 6:30 PM EST, the warm front of the system (otherwise known as the first bands of precipitation associating to this system) is at around Indianapolis, north-northeast through Cleveland, Syracruse, and through New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Due to the “hugeness” of this system, some of the precipitation from this front had already reached Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

From this RADAR, I predict that the snow will start falling in the Greater Toronto Area between the periods of 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM; and for the Ottawa-Gatineau area, the snow will start at one or two hours after Toronto had started its snowfall. As for Montreal Metropolitain, it looks like some initial band of the precipitation had found its way into the area 50 km south of Montreal. Therefore, I think Montreal will start their snowfall at approximately the same time as Toronto.

The worst of this storm will be at around southcentral Quebec. Places such as Sorel, Trois-Rivieres, Shawanigan will see the worst of this storm, as depicted from the GFS. From the GFS, I estimate that around 30 to 40 cm of snow can fall.

From the GFS, this is my prediction for each of the major metropolitan areas as to when the heaviest snow will hit:

Windsor – At around tonight 9 to 11 PM
London – At around tonight 10 PM to 2 AM
Hamilton – Tomorrow morning at around 3 AM to 6 AM
Niagara – Tomorrow morning at around 1 AM to 5 AM
Toronto – Tomorrow morning at around 4 AM to 8 AM (nasty commute)
Belleville – Tomorrow morning at around 6 AM to 9 AM
Kingston – Tomorrow morning at around 7 AM to 11 AM
Ottawa – Tomorrow morning at around 8 AM to noon
Montreal – Tomorrow around mid day

A general 15 to 25 cm of snow can be expected for most of the region; while some locale can see more than 30 cm.

A snowfall expectation chart and map to follow:

Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) – 12 to 18 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) – 12 to 18 cm
Middlesex County; London – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) – 8 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) – 2 to 8 cm (Mostly Freezing Rain)
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) – 10 to 18 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) – 13 to 22 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) – 20 to 30 cm (Very slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) – 15 to 30 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) – 12 to 25 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) – N/A
North Bay – 1 to 3 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) – 15 to 25 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) – 12 to 20 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) – 22 to 30 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton – 12 to 20 cm

Québec

Vaudreil – Dorion – 25 to 30 cm (Slight Chance of Freezing Rain)
Mont Tremblant – 25 to 35 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) – 20 to 30 cm
Montréal – 25 to 40 cm (Slight chance of Freezing Rain)
Terrebonne – 28 to 35 cm
Laval – 20 to 35 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) – 30 to 45 cm (Storm total could vary; depends the amount of freezing rain)
Shawanigan – 30 to 40 cm (Storm total could vary; depending the amount of freezing rain)
Sherbrooke; Drummondville – 10 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) – 25 to 35 cm
Rimouski – 35 to 50 cm
Gaspé Penisula – 25 to 50 cm
Sept-Iles – 20 to 35 cm

New Brunswick

Bathurst; Campbellton – 10 to 18 cm
Fredericton – 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Moncton; Dieppe; Riverview – 7 to 15 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
St. John – 3 to 8 cm (Mostly Rain / Freezing Rain)

Prince Edward Island

Charlottetown – 5 to 10 cm (Snow to Rain)
Summerside – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)
Souris – 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Rain)

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Flash Freeze Tonight

March 3, 2008 at 10:17 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Markham, ON- Enjoyed the taste of spring today? Well, it’s not going to last long. Although Environment Canada had not issued any Flash Freeze Warnings yet to Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, according to the GFS models and my personal insights that this is entirely possible that we can have a flash freeze tonight.

All that snow that had melt and the rain that had fallen over the past 24 hours will become the major travelling hazard for tomorrow’s morning commute. It is estimated about 3 to 8 cm of snow had melted over the course of today, and around 1 to 3 mm of rain had fell across the Greater Toronto area today. That will create intensive puddles as well as some slippery sections of the road cover in water. Tonight, as the cold front sweeps through, we are looking at around an additional of 2 to 5 mm of rain. With this cold front, (as all cold fronts do), it brings in the cold arctic air (the same air mass that plunge Winnipeg’s daytime high to -10 C on March 1). This arctic air will come rapidly, along with some cold winds, creating wind chills down to -10 C. Temperature could fall from 6 C (expected dinner-time temperature) to -4 C in a matter of 3 hours. Freezing could occur rapidly. Additionally, recent weather models suggest some strong wrap-around snow, that could accumulate on the ice up to 5 cm, making the ice invisible, which allows the commute to get worse.

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Yet another March Storm

March 2, 2008 at 11:56 pm · Filed under Winter ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

<strong>Markham, ON</strong> – February was a fierce month to many Torontonians. We haven’t had such fierce winter months in years. Of course, this led to many chaos to the unadapted the Torontonians. We’ve been increasingly adapted to the temperate winter.

This February was the snowiest month on record. Normally, we will receive around 22 cm of snow in February. However, we have made A RECORD! This record surpassed our old record of around 50 cm. Guess what? We’ve recorded 70 cm of snow in February alone! That was approximately all the snow we had seen last year!

We are currently aiming at breaking an all-time snowfall record set back from the 1938/1939 winter.

The first storm of March looks really fierce right now. A winter storm watch had been issued to Southern Ontario on Sunday afternoon. We are expecting a system from the Gulf of Mexico to “drag” the jet stream to way up north, creating a perfect path for the heat and moisture to build in. The warm front of this system is going to make its way into Southern Ontario tonight. With that, we can see some extensive freezing rain, as well as some ice accretion on roads. It will not be a very pleasant sight tomorrow’s morning commute, with all the slippery roads caused by the ice accretion. Approximately 2 mm of ice accretion is expected across the Greater Toronto Area. However, in the Niagara Peninsula, some snow could start off the precipitation, and that could also be slippery.

The warm air will surge in late morning tomorrow, giving a taste of our long-lost spring to the Torontonians. Temperatures are expected to soar up to 6 C across much of the suburbs of Toronto, while significantly higher (around 8 C) in Toronto and the Niagara Peninsula. Precipitation will also cease near mid-morning, giving way to some sunny breaks.

Tomorrow will be a perfect day for a walk in the park (if you get out at the right time, because if you get out late, the rain could return before you know it, details to follow), but beware of the melting water of the snow. It could cause some of the rivers to break its banks. Also, periods of freezing rain during the night does not help the problem either.

The cold front, according to the GFS, will sweep its way across Southern Ontario, during the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of heavy rain, perhaps thunder, will fall during the evening commute, and the commute will be a messy one. Temperatures will fall rapidly during the night, and we will experience the back side of the storm. We will see some of the wrap-around flurries, and some lake effects, and these conditions will linger until Wednesday, accumulating up to 5 cm.

Looks like spring is not quite there yet, but enjoy your taste of spring tomorrow!

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